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Archive for the ‘Peter Warburton’ Category

A dissenting view on inflation

Has the Bank of England lost control of interest rates? You won’t hear that view from any official source, but it is worth listening to the economist Peter Warburton, the founder of the consultancy Economic Perspectives, whose often dissenting opinions have been more right than wrong over the past couple of decades. He argues differently in this contribution to the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee’s latest review of economic conditions, in which he warns about the incipient threat of price inflation. It is well worth reading: I suspect it will look very prescient when we look back in years to come.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Bank of England has lost control of UK retail borrowing costs. During the three years-plus that Bank Rate has been set at ½%, the average interest rate paid on banks’ and building societies’ notice deposit accounts has risen from a low of 0.17% in February 2009 to 1.83% in July 2012.

Admittedly, the quoted monthly rates have bounced around, but the average for 2012 is 1.41%. This is a measure of the average cost of retail funds to the banking sector; the marginal cost is closer to 3%. On the other side of the balance sheet, Santander UK has recently announced a 50 basis point increase in its standard variable mortgage rate, to 4.74% from October. Clearly, the level of Bank Rate has played no role in the evolution of market rates for the past three years. The MPC’s consideration of a cut in Bank Rate is perverse and farcical in this context. As and when the UK economic news flow permits, Bank Rate should be raised in order to reconnect it to the structure of market rates. However, with UK activity indicators currently erratic and weak, now is not a good time to do this. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

September 4, 2012 at 9:41 AM