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Posts Tagged ‘Cyprus

Even cash is now at risk

Albert Edwards, the lead strategist at Societe Generale, has added some typically forthright (and witty) comments on the latest developments in Euroland. By making explicit the fact that both uninsured bank depositors and all classes of bondholder have been required to take part in the rescue/liquidation of the two largest Cypriot banks, the troika (EU, IMF and ECB) has highlighted the fact that cash itself is now officially potentially an unsafe asset. He wonders also (as do I) how long it will be before a Eurozone country finally decides that remaining in the single currency is not worth the trauma that staying in involves.

Most economic analysis concludes, probably correctly, how much more costly it would be for either a creditor or debtor nation to leave the eurozone system compared to struggling on within it. Indeed for Germany, despite becoming increasingly irritated by having to dip their hands into their rapidly fraying pockets, the crisis in the eurozone has been accompanied by the lowest unemployment rates since before re-unification in 1990. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

March 27, 2013 at 5:42 PM

Cyprus and beyond: more thoughts

As usual it will take a day or two for the markets to decide which of their initial reactions to the Cyprus bailout – relief that a deal has been struck, or concern at the implications of the terms imposed by the troika – will prove dominant. Some things do seem clear from what we have learnt already:

  • This was the most acrimonious bailout negotiation yet, with little love lost between the Cypriot negotiators and the troika representatives on the other. Talks came close to breakdown on several occasions over the course of the past week. Apparently tipped off in advance that the Russians would not come riding to the rescue, the troika played hardball – and eventually won, although not before the Cypriot President had threatened to resign and/or take Cyprus out of the euro – a desperate course of action which the influential Archbishop of Cyprus, for one, has openly advocated.
  • Although the deal will avoid the outcome of Cyprus leaving the euro for now, that still remains a possibility. The bailout creates a number of important precedents, raising the possibility that bondholders and depositors in troubled banks elsewhere in the Eurozone could be forced to pick up the tab if their bank needs to be rescued in future. The Dutch finance minister who now heads the Eurogroup said as much yesterday, and subsequent attempts to smooth over his remarks – which were remarkably explicit – have been less than convincing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

March 26, 2013 at 2:01 PM

Cyprus: new fault lines in the Eurozone

What to make of the Cyprus rescue deal announced this morning? Is it necessary? Absolutely: the Cypriot banking system is insolvent, and has been ever since the Greek rescue deal last year, if not before. Is it fair? Probably not. Knowing how weak the Cypriots’ bargaining position was, the troika (EU, ECB and IMF) has played hardball with one of the EU’s smallest member countries, which makes it certain that for every irate mobster or money launderer who loses a chunk of their capital, there will also be many hard luck cases.

The deal administers rough and ready treatment to bank depositors in the country’s two largest banks, while preserving – belatedly, and at the second attempt – the general principle that depositors with less than $100,000 euros are still protected from loss by state guarantee. (Important to note that while the EU has enshrined this principle as a political objective, the guarantees are only as good as the individual state that provides them. Cross-border deposit insurance, under which the EU would collectively guarantee bank deposits in all member states, is necessary if the banking union which the EU is trying to edge towards is ever to become a reality, but it remains so electorally toxic that it won’t be introduced any time soon). Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

March 25, 2013 at 4:12 PM