An independent professional's take on the latest news and trends in global financial markets

Posts Tagged ‘inflation

Change on the way at the Bank of England?

I have always liked the pragmatic approach to economics of the Financial Times Economics Editor Chris Giles, whose balanced pieces are a useful corrective to the doctrinally-driven work of most economists. His recent article in the Financial Times included this sensible comment on the most recent speech by Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, which I think was a significant milestone on the road towards what increasingly looks like a coming change in emphasis in UK monetary policy.

On Tuesday evening, Sir Mervyn King completed his slow conversion from being an activist on what economists call the “demand side” to a “supply side” pessimist. Where the Bank of England governor once saw monetary policy as a simple tool to reinvigorate spending and bring the level of output back to its previous trend, his speech indicates he now sees the pre-crisis period as infected by unsustainably overexposed bank lending and “unsustainable paths of consumption”. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

January 27, 2013 at 8:29 PM

Hold on to your hats in Japan

The dramatic upwards move in the Japanese equity market since the autumn has plenty further to go, according to Jonathan Ruffer, the founder of the private client fund management group Ruffer LLP, one of the professionals whose latest thinking I (and many others) like to follow closely.  Ruffer as a firm has held an overweight position in Japan for quite a long time, and now stands ready to be vindicated if Japan’s new reflation policy takes hold, as the markets now seem to be assuming. Writing in his latest quarterly review, he comments as follows:

We hold roughly half of portfolios in equities, in the UK, Europe, US and Asia, but the largest geographic position is in Japan. This market was broadly flat when we last wrote to you, although we had made good money in financial and property stocks. In the last quarter these and other holdings surged further, providing a strong finish to a dull year. The rationale in Japan remains intact; it is the warrant on world economic growth, and so more of the same in terms of monetary stimulus should favour Japan without the rest of the world’s downside. The stability of Japan, its lack of overcapacity, and the absence of financial or labour fragilities, give some protection, and afford it the ability to generate a self-sustaining economic recovery. The low expectations built into the possibility of a Japanese economic recovery provide the opportunity for further sharp market rises. The major obstacle to a more bullish backcloth has disappeared with the appointment of Abe as Prime Minister, and the forthcoming retirement of Shirikawa as Governor of the Bank of Japan. In this new world, the investment danger for foreigners is a weak yen (we have been fully hedged), but this is a benefit to the equity market. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by Jonathan Davis

January 21, 2013 at 3:33 PM